An analysis by McKinsey & Company concludes that Hungary’s economy has reached a turning point: future growth can no longer rely on expanding employment but must come from higher productivity. McKinsey’s forthcoming study on Hungary identifies artificial intelligence (AI) as a key enabler of this productivity-led development.
How much could AI contribute?
The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that AI-enabled automation could deliver at least €15 billion of value to the Hungarian economy by 2030. According to the report, this amount corresponds to roughly 6–7% of Hungary’s GDP; the authors add that the aggregate national impact could be higher if productivity gains strengthen the country’s regional competitiveness.
Why a shift is needed
The study notes that over the past one and a half decades employment in Hungary rose to 81%, and real wages have increased by more than 50% since 2008. While these improvements supported past growth, they have reached their limits as a source of further expansion. McKinsey argues that future growth must be driven by productivity improvements and greater innovation rather than further headcount increases.
Where Hungary lags
Havas András, partner at McKinsey, says the main competitiveness constraint is low value creation: Hungarian productivity trails both the EU and Visegrád (V4) averages. The study attributes this gap to low domestic added value, differences in development between large firms and small and medium-sized enterprises, and modest innovation capacity. Havas highlights that AI can make economic actors more efficient and productive, and that the technology therefore holds substantial economic potential.
Potential is not automatic — conditions and strategy
Matécsa Márta, partner at McKinsey, emphasized that AI does not automatically solve productivity problems but creates the opportunity to accelerate progress. Realizing that opportunity depends on whether Hungarian companies, institutions and workers can adopt and scale the technology. The study identifies strategic steps and enabling conditions required to implement AI-based economic development.
When the full study appears
McKinsey will publish the complete study in June; the full report will detail the opportunities in AI, implementation requirements and relevant international examples.
Conclusion
McKinsey’s analysis suggests that adopting and scaling AI could provide a pathway for Hungary to raise productivity and create a new engine for growth. However, the firm cautions that capturing this potential requires strategic action and active participation from businesses, policymakers and the workforce.
