Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, said in a podcast posted on Thursday that artificial intelligence (AI) will eventually create "real abundance," but warned that the next twenty years could be the most turbulent period in human history. Gates told the Business Insider he is especially concerned about that transitional phase.
What Gates expects
Gates said the coming two decades will constitute a transition marked by significant upheaval as AI spreads. During that period he expects both winners and losers: some jobs will disappear while others will emerge or transform.
Which jobs are at risk?
Gates specifically mentioned phone salespeople, customer service workers and accountants as roles that could vanish because AI can perform those tasks "much more cheaply, much faster and more accurately." For those who perform physical labor, he warned, humanoid robots may take over their jobs over time.
The social role of work and possible policy responses
Gates also emphasized that people need work for purpose, income and social connections. For that reason he does not endorse eliminating work entirely; he suggested policymakers should consider measures that allow people to continue working to some extent in the future. Examples he raised include lowering the retirement age or limiting working hours.
Other leaders' views
Gates is not alone in his concerns: Elon Musk, the technology billionaire, has expressed a similar view. Musk has argued that government intervention could help prevent mass job losses. He also believes that in the longer term the technological transition could lead to widespread prosperity, where work becomes optional and saving money may lose its traditional importance.
Why this matters
The scenario Gates outlines raises urgent policy questions about how to mitigate the social costs of the transition, how to create new skills and job opportunities, and what regulatory steps are needed to avoid wide-ranging harm. How the next two decades unfold will be pivotal in determining whether AI’s spread results in broad abundance or significant social strain.
