SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing public offerings that would each surpass the largest recent IPOs, making their listings historically significant. Using Bloomberg data, we reviewed how the ten largest IPOs of the past decade performed during their first 180 trading days to provide context.
What the past shows
Of the ten largest IPOs examined, only three stocks were trading above their offering price after 180 trading days. The average return across the sample over that period was minus 6 percent. Outcomes were highly dispersed: some listings declined to roughly a quarter of their initial value by day 180, while others roughly doubled their offering price.
The most extreme case was Rivian: in the days after listing it traded as much as 70 percent above the offering price — driven largely by post-IPO mania — but by the 180-day mark its share price had fallen to about one quarter of the original level.
Why these three listings matter now
It is unusual that three large, partly similar-profile companies would seek to list around the same time. (SpaceX, for example, also has activities related to artificial intelligence.) AI stocks and baskets of loss-making IT companies rallied strongly in April and May; issuers appear to be trying to capitalize on that recent surge.
Risks and takeaways
Although it can be tempting to try to participate in so-called "historic" IPOs — especially when the issuers claim they will be defining firms of the future — the historical record of the biggest listings shows highly mixed short-term results. Given prior performance and the recent strong market moves, investors should resist FOMO (fear of missing out) and carefully reconsider before committing substantial capital around an offering. (Erstemarket)
Key figures
- Sample: ten largest IPOs of the past decade
- Number trading above offering price after 180 days: 3
- Average 180-day return: -6%
- Notable example: Rivian — up ~70% shortly after IPO, down to ~25% of original price by day 180
Past performance does not guarantee future results: the scale and timing of these upcoming listings make them noteworthy, but they also carry significant volatility and risk.
