Investment bank Morgan Stanley has started coverage of SpaceX with a $300 per-share target, but the more consequential development is the bank’s shifted valuation framework. Analysts now attribute roughly three percent of SpaceX’s value to traditional space activities such as rocket launches, and instead see the company’s future value coming primarily from the Starlink satellite internet business and infrastructure to serve artificial intelligence (AI) workloads.
Why the reassessment?
SpaceX’s own filings and financial results released this year show a company whose revenue mix has changed. Revenue rose to $18.7 billion in 2025 versus $14 billion in 2024. Although SpaceX remains unprofitable, an increasing share of revenues is generated outside of launch services, driven largely by Starlink.
By the end of the first quarter of 2026, Starlink had more than 10.3 million subscribers worldwide, up from just over two million three years earlier. The service is available in more than 160 countries and territories and is being adopted by an expanding set of customers, including airlines, shipping companies and government agencies.
Subscription revenue vs. one-off launches
Morgan Stanley highlights an important distinction: a launch produces a one-time payment, whereas a Starlink subscriber provides recurring revenue over many years. That predictable, subscription-style cash flow changes the company’s revenue profile and can support longer-term growth investments.
AI infrastructure as the next big bet
Morgan Stanley goes further and projects that the largest value creation over the next 15 years could come from AI-related infrastructure. Their model suggests AI-linked revenues could be about $22 billion in 2026, rise to $190 billion by 2030, and reach $2.6 trillion by 2040.
Under this scenario, SpaceX would evolve beyond an internet provider to build a global AI infrastructure that combines data centers, high-performance compute capacity and satellite connectivity.
Different peers, different comparisons
If SpaceX’s strategic focus shifts toward serving AI workloads, the bank argues, the company’s natural competitors are likely to be cloud and infrastructure providers such as Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud and Oracle rather than pure-play space firms like Blue Origin, Rocket Lab or ULA. That reframes how investors and analysts might judge the company’s prospects.
Traditional space business still matters
That said, classic space contracts remain important. The U.S. government is a major customer: in spring 2026 the U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX a $2.29 billion contract to build a military satellite data-transfer network. NASA programs—including crewed spaceflight, resupply missions to the International Space Station and lunar initiatives—also provide ongoing demand.
Risks and market caution
Not all market participants share Morgan Stanley’s optimism. Several other banks set lower targets in the $190–$225 range, and the stock declined from initial highs in the weeks after trading began, reflecting investor caution about long-term scenarios like Morgan Stanley’s. SpaceX itself notes in its filings that its AI business is at an early stage and faces significant technological, financing and integration risks, particularly following the acquisition of xAI.
Why this matters
The significance of Morgan Stanley’s report lies less in the $300 target and more in the shift in perspective: a major Wall Street firm now envisions SpaceX primarily as a potential provider of global AI and communications infrastructure rather than solely as a rocket company. Whether that thesis materializes will be one of the most important technology and investment questions of the coming decade.
