According to Department of Labor data, just 187,000 new claims for unemployment insurance were filed last week — the fewest in a single week since September 1969. Because the labor force was considerably smaller in 1969, the current figure is effectively the lowest on record when measured relative to today’s workforce.
What the number indicates
The unusually low level of claims points to a remarkably low rate of firings across the economy, which undercuts widespread warnings that the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) would trigger mass layoffs.
Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote that while seasonal factors may slightly affect the headline number, the extremely low level of claims highlights a low layoff rate and the underlying strength of the labor market.
The other side: hiring and who is affected
Fewer weekly claims do not tell the whole story. A low number of firings reveals little about hiring dynamics, and younger workers appear to be feeling the effects of a low-hire, low-fire economy.
Indeed’s recent report found that entry-level job postings have trended downward since 2022 and were 7.5% lower year-over-year as of May. By contrast, senior-level job postings rose by nearly 15% over the same period.
Bottom line
Weekly unemployment claims continue to defy predictions of rising layoffs. If the trend persists, economists may need to reassess how much job loss to expect from AI adoption and other economic factors. However, differences in hiring across experience levels and the uneven impact on younger workers remain important considerations.
Data: Department of Labor. Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios.
