Whether artificial intelligence is already displacing jobs remains hotly debated. While many recent tech layoffs have been attributed to AI, researchers at venture firm SignalFire say hiring data paints a different picture for engineering roles.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that May was one of the largest single-month waves of tech layoffs in years, and AI was the most-cited reason. Still, Asher Bantock, SignalFire’s head of research, said: “The rationale given for lots of layoffs is consistently AI, and specifically they’ll say AI with respect to code; they’ll say one engineer could do the job of however many engineers in the past. What we’re seeing on the ground is a little inconsistent with that.”
SignalFire’s approach and key figures
SignalFire tracked the careers of millions of employees across more than 80 million companies. The firm argues that hiring data gives a more accurate real-time read on workforce trends than layoffs, because people often delay updating their employment status after being cut.
According to SignalFire’s 2025 "State of Talent Report":
- Total hiring across large tech companies fell 25% compared with 2019 levels.
- Engineering roles declined by a much smaller 11%.
- Across the 12 companies SignalFire classifies as “Tech Majors” — Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, Uber, Airbnb, Block, and Stripe — engineers made up 55% of all new hires in 2025, up from 46% in 2019.
- Early-stage startups collectively hired 7% more engineers in 2025 than in 2019.
Bantock argued that if AI were truly substituting for engineering talent, engineering hiring would be among the first to fall during the tech hiring contraction. Instead, SignalFire’s data shows engineering headcount has been growing faster than many other functions.
Leadership views and the Jevons paradox
Voices within the industry diverge. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, warned last year that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and raise unemployment as high as 20% within five years. Yet Peter McCrory, Anthropic’s head of economics, told TechCrunch in March that he had not seen significant AI-driven effects on the workforce. McCrory said, “There’s at least no larger material difference in unemployment rates” between workers who use Claude to automate core tasks—such as technical writers, data entry clerks, and software engineers—and workers in jobs less exposed to AI that require physical interaction and dexterity.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang went further in an April interview at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, rejecting the idea that AI will destroy software engineering jobs. He argued the opposite: now that Nvidia engineers are using agentic AI, “software engineers are busier than ever.” He added that while agents write code near instantaneously, they constantly push engineers to produce “the next idea.”
For now, engineering appears to be a textbook case of the Jevons paradox: increased efficiency from AI has not reduced demand for engineers; it has expanded the work engineers do. As Bantock put it, “They’re suddenly a lot more productive, and there’s endless work for them to do.”
Why this matters
SignalFire’s findings suggest that commonly repeated narratives about AI quickly replacing engineers are not reflected in hiring patterns. While layoffs and AI-driven disruption are real concerns, a role-by-role look at 2025 hiring shows sustained and in some places growing demand for engineering talent.
