Investors expect Anthropic, the artificial intelligence startup, could list on public markets in October with a valuation around $2 trillion. Such a figure would exceed SpaceX’s valuation and make the offering one of the largest initial public offerings (IPOs) ever.
Basis for investor optimism
Backers point to strong demand for Anthropic’s advanced AI models and tools—particularly the Claude family—and to rapid revenue growth. Several investors told the Financial Times they expect the company’s annualised revenue to reach $100–120 billion by the end of 2026; Anthropic uses annualised revenue as a preferred metric that projects full‑year sales from recent performance.
In May the company reported annualised revenues above $47 billion. Through 2026, venture capitalists, sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors have injected just under $100 billion into Anthropic. Those inflows and fast growth pushed the firm’s valuation to $965 billion in May when accounting for the new investments, briefly ahead of OpenAI.
Profitability and lack of listed peers
Analysts warn the key issue is not simply whether Anthropic reaches $100–120 billion in revenue, but how much of that revenue it can convert into profit. There is no directly comparable, publicly traded US peer to provide a reliable valuation benchmark. Other companies benefiting from the AI boom—such as Palantir and Nebius—have traded this year at roughly 55 times their annual revenues.
Several investors said Anthropic’s executives have not publicly settled on an IPO target valuation in private conversations either, leaving backers to build their own financial models.
Regulatory, competitive and customer pressure
Despite optimistic revenue projections, the company faces mounting challenges. Anthropic has repeatedly clashed with the US government and remains in litigation with the Department of Defense, which earlier this year classified the firm as a supply‑chain risk. In June, US Commerce Department export restrictions forced Anthropic to temporarily withdraw two leading models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5—moves that two investors familiar with the situation said contributed to a slowdown in revenue growth that month.
Competition from lower‑cost players, especially rapidly improving Chinese open‑weight models, is another pressure point. Data from Artificial Analysis indicates Anthropic’s leading model costs more than 2.5 times as much to use as OpenAI’s flagship model, and substantially more than Chinese alternatives.
Customer sensitivity to model pricing has also increased. Ramp’s payment‑services data show Anthropic recently gained share in the US enterprise market, but Ramp analysts note companies are reaching limits on how much they will spend on AI and are shifting toward cheaper solutions.
Implications for the IPO and investors
If Anthropic attains the projected annualised revenue and public markets assign a high revenue multiple, the IPO could deliver multibillion‑dollar returns to early investors. Yet the offering will test public markets that have grown more cautious about the AI boom; ultimate market reception will depend on Anthropic’s path to profitability, regulatory developments and enterprise customers’ willingness to pay premium prices.
Anthropic filed documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June and has entered a so‑called quiet period, limiting the company’s public financial disclosures while it prepares for a potential listing.
