Several investors expect Anthropic, the generative AI startup, to go public in October at a valuation of at least $2 trillion. If realized, that level would make the offering the largest IPO on record, surpassing SpaceX’s June debut at about $1.77 trillion.
Basis for the lofty valuation
Backers point to Anthropic’s rapid revenue growth as the foundation for their optimism. According to reporting, some investors believe the company’s current valuation of roughly $965 billion could double by the autumn listing. Investor models project Anthropic’s annualized revenue for year-end 2026 at $100–120 billion, implying roughly a tenfold increase over the course of the year.
Analysts note that with an 800% annual growth rate, even conservative multiples — on the order of thirty times revenue — would imply a company valuation near $3 trillion.
Market comparisons and multiples
Direct public comparators are limited because Anthropic lacks a listed peer in the US market. Still, other companies benefiting from the AI sector, such as Palantir and Nebius, have traded this year at about 55 times revenue. Sources indicate Anthropic’s management has not fixed an official target valuation for the IPO; investors have built their own financial models.
Key risks: regulation, legal disputes and competition
The bullish forecasts are tempered by several material risks. Anthropic is engaged in litigation with the US Department of Defense, which this year categorized the company as a supply-chain risk. In June, the US Department of Commerce imposed export controls on Anthropic’s leading models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, requiring their temporary withdrawal from distribution. Those measures unsettled customers relying on the models, and two investors said June’s monthly revenue growth slowed as a result — though the company’s performance has since recovered.
Pricing is another concern: analysis by Artificial Analysis indicates Anthropic’s leading model costs more than 2.5 times OpenAI’s flagship offering, while Chinese open-weight alternatives are substantially cheaper.
Data from the Ramp payments provider show Anthropic increased its share among US enterprise customers in recent months, but analysts also found that many companies have reached the upper limits of their AI spending and are increasingly turning to lower-cost solutions.
IPO preparations and capital raised
Anthropic filed the documentation required for a public offering with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June, triggering the customary quiet period that limits public disclosures about financial performance. During 2026 the company attracted nearly $100 billion of capital from venture funds, sovereign wealth funds and other institutional investors; in May its valuation overtook OpenAI’s for the first time.
What to watch before the listing
Investor models and market expectations hinge on sustained revenue growth, the evolving regulatory environment, and competitive dynamics — notably the potential price pressure from cheaper Chinese models. Export controls, the legal dispute with the Department of Defense, and customer spending constraints are all factors that could materially affect the IPO’s final pricing and valuation.
Note: an AI assistant contributed to the article’s preparation; the final content was edited and verified by a journalist.
