Investor enthusiasm for Anthropic Technologies Inc. — developer of the Claude AI model — has cooled sharply in recent weeks. According to market reports, prospective buyers are now negotiating a company valuation in the $1.2–1.3 trillion range, down from $1.4–$1.5 trillion a few weeks ago and well below earlier estimates that reached $1.8–$2 trillion.
Market context and drivers
Bloomberg reports that the re-pricing is linked to a broader sell-off across AI-related stocks: the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% in a single day, erasing about $2.3 trillion of market value — a record one-day decline. At the same time, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose to a level not seen since April 2025, underlining elevated market fears.
Political developments in the United States have also added uncertainty. Following Democratic gains in Congress, investors are considering the possibility of tighter oversight for building and expanding data centres, a factor that could affect infrastructure-heavy AI companies’ future costs and risks.
Expert views and possible IPO tactics
Stephan Kemper, chief investment officer for BNP Paribas Wealth Management in Germany, said Anthropic’s valuation should move closer to the lower end of the previously mentioned $1.5–$2 trillion band, but it could fall 10–15% beneath that. Michael Alfaro, investment director at Gallo Partners, had considered a $1.3–$1.4 trillion valuation acceptable to generate sufficient investor demand prior to the recent sell-off.
Max Kettner, HSBC’s lead multi-asset strategist, told Bloomberg radio that a roughly $1 trillion price point could be a safer starting point, helping to reduce the risk of large share price swings after listing.
To manage risk, Anthropic and selling shareholders could adopt a cautious IPO approach: initially offering a smaller block of shares at a lower price and then expanding targets depending on investor interest. Postponing the IPO is also an option; while companies must make offering documents public at least 15 calendar days before a formal investor roadshow, in practice preparations can take longer.
Financials and planned listing
Anthropic submitted a revised S-1 registration statement showing revenue of $33.24 billion and a net loss of $104 billion for the period from January 1 to September 30, 2025. In its most recent private funding round the company was valued at $965 billion.
The company plans to list its Class A common shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT. Earlier plans had targeted a public debut before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on November 26, with the investor roadshow potentially starting the week of November 9 — at that time some market participants estimated the valuation at $1.8–$2 trillion.
Stakes and remaining decisions
Anthropic’s IPO could become one of the largest ever, potentially raising up to $100 billion, and would position the company ahead of its largest rival, OpenAI, in terms of a public financing milestone. Nonetheless, the disclosed financials — notably the sizeable net losses — combined with volatile market sentiment and regulatory uncertainty present material risks for prospective shareholders.
The final offering price and timing have not been decided. Bloomberg reports that the company’s investor materials could begin circulating next week, but negotiations over the ultimate valuation are ongoing.
