An analysis by the Washington‑based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) concludes that Russia has definitively lost the military initiative in Ukraine, while the human and strategic cost of the war for the Vlagyimir Putyin regime is rising sharply.
Key figures and timeline
CSIS estimates that from the start of the full‑scale invasion in February 2022 through June 2026 Russian "combat losses" total roughly 1.4 million personnel, a figure that includes killed, wounded and missing. Within this total, the number of deaths is estimated at between 400,000 and 450,000. The authors stress these figures are unprecedented in the modern era: they are more than four times the U.S. total military losses across its post‑World War II conflicts and more than nine times the combined losses suffered by the Soviet Union and Russia over comparable periods (including operations in Afghanistan and Chechnya).
According to CSIS, monthly Russian losses in the first half of 2026 ranged from 30,000 to 34,000, exceeding the estimated monthly recruitment rate of about 27,000. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses, which for much of the war had been roughly 2:1 or 3:1, had shifted by 2026 to about 8:1 in Ukraine's favor.
Battlefield movement and territorial change
The report finds that the Russian ground offensive has essentially stalled: advances are now measured in only a few dozen metres per day, making the campaign one of the slowest of the past century. CSIS provides local figures: an average daily advance of roughly 50 metres near Kosztyantynivka, about 70 metres around Pokrovsk, and approximately 90 metres near Sloviansk. Moreover, territory under Russian control began to contract in spring 2026: in April and May Russian forces lost more area than they seized, resulting in a net territorial loss of roughly 400 square kilometres — a development not seen since August 2024.
Role of drones, rockets and artificial intelligence
The analysts highlight the extraordinary effectiveness of Ukraine's long‑range strike campaign, which relies heavily on drones and rockets. Ukrainian attacks have struck nearby targets such as the Crimean Peninsula and the Belgorod region, as well as more distant Russian locations; the report mentions strikes on targets more than 6,000 kilometres from Kyiv, citing as an example an "ukrainkai airbase."
The use of artificial intelligence on the battlefield receives particular attention. The report names the Hornet autonomous strike drone as an example: the Hornet costs roughly $6,000 per unit, has a range of up to 150 kilometres, and its onboard AI analyzes video in real time to distinguish genuine military targets from decoys or deceptive signatures. The platform can execute strikes without satellite connectivity, making it more resilient to Russian electronic warfare.
CSIS notes that in the 20–40 kilometre deep "kill zones" running along the front, drones—not direct infantry engagements—are responsible for more than 90 percent of Russian losses.
Why this matters
Taken together — the exceptional personnel losses, monthly attrition outpacing recruitment, the slowdown in battlefield tempo, spring 2026 territorial contraction, and Ukraine's effective long‑range strike capabilities — CSIS argues these factors indicate Russia no longer holds the military initiative in Ukraine. The report implies these dynamics are likely to increase strategic and political pressure on the Kremlin.
(The accompanying image is illustrative.)
