A new analysis by Goldman Sachs concludes that artificial intelligence (AI) is exerting a measurable downward pressure on labor markets in advanced economies. The study, which disaggregates data by industry and experience level, finds that sectors more exposed to AI‑driven automation have generally seen slower growth in job openings since the second half of 2022.
Which countries and sectors are most affected?
The slowdown is most pronounced in Germany, Australia and the United States. The information and communication services sector — one of the most AI‑exposed industries — has experienced weaker employment growth across almost all major advanced economies since 2022; however, outside the United States, employment levels generally remain near or above long‑term trends.
Goldman Sachs examined sub‑sectors in detail. In developed markets, employment in call centers, software publishing, management consulting and advertising has been well below historical trends. Call centers stand out: employment in the United States is 39 percent below the trend value, in Canada 33 percent below, and in Germany 27 percent below.
The bank interprets these shortfalls as evidence that the spread of tools capable of automation is already having detectable labour‑market effects.
Who is hit hardest?
The effects are uneven across experience levels. Analyzing data from more than 800 occupations, Goldman Sachs found that adverse AI‑related impacts are strongest among entry‑level workers.
Across the whole workforce, a 10 percent AI exposure corresponded to only a 0.1 percentage‑point slowdown in annual headcount growth in France, Canada and the United States. For entry‑level workers, the same exposure produced larger declines: a 0.2 percentage‑point fall in the United States and a decline of more than 0.6 percentage points in Australia.
How widespread is AI adoption?
Based on an aggregation of 11 surveys, Goldman Sachs estimates AI adoption in developed economies at roughly 15–20 percent. France, the United States, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom lead the pack, while Italy, Japan and New Zealand lag. Adoption rates on emerging markets are estimated between 10 and 15 percent.
Conclusion
Goldman Sachs concludes that AI‑related labour‑market pressure is already clearly visible in employment data globally, but so far it is concentrated in a relatively narrow set of industries and worker groups — notably entry‑level employees and certain business‑services sectors. The bank’s analysis provides specific country and sector examples that illustrate the variation in AI’s impact across different markets.
