According to a report in Defense One, an increasing number of military and European analysts now believe Russia is not invincible in the war and that Ukrainian developments could create a path to victory. This shift in assessment grew out of the experience since Russia launched its large-scale invasion in February 2022: Moscow’s initial plan for a rapid victory — Vlagyimir Putin’s aim to seize the capital in “three days” — failed, and early setbacks exposed weaknesses in Russian strategic planning.
What changed on the Ukrainian side?
Analysts attribute the turnaround to Ukraine’s targeted investments in robotics and artificial intelligence. The report states that those autonomous and remotely operated systems have enhanced Ukrainian capabilities to a degree that produced several concrete effects:
- The developments reportedly allow Ukrainian forces to destroy incoming attacking air-defense assets with better than 90 percent certainty.
- Ground-deployed systems are able to provide long, stable resistance against attacks.
- In some cases, unmanned drones have been used to retake territory.
Experts emphasize that these successes owe much to partnerships with European allies and to continuous tactical updates. Near the front lines, Ukrainian forces connect as many systems as possible to each other to boost effectiveness and situational awareness.
Ukrainian optimism and Russian constraints
Ukrainian officials speak optimistically: they say that in a few years they have closed technological and tactical gaps once considered insurmountable, and that autonomous capabilities will define future warfare. They warn that armies that do not prioritize such development risk falling behind.
The report also highlights growing problems in the Russian economy and on the battlefield: the high cost of the war is straining Moscow’s resources, President Putin’s support is starting to decline, popular discontent is rising, and frontline losses are increasingly difficult to replace. If these trends persist, the report says, it is not impossible that Ukraine could emerge victorious — a scenario that seemed almost inconceivable at the outset of the conflict.
Note
Alongside the Defense One coverage, the original piece references related reports (for example a 2026.06.02 update on strikes and targets), but this article focuses on summarizing the reported changes in Ukrainian capabilities and the shifting expert assessments.
