One key argument around Mag7 stocks in recent months has been that building AI infrastructure is turning formerly high‑free‑cash‑flow tech companies into more capital‑intensive businesses. Bloomberg’s capex statistics indicate that the largest U.S. technology firms could plan up to $725 billion of investment in 2026, largely tied to AI data‑center infrastructure.
Since mid‑2025, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta have signalled growing investment plans. At the same time, companies have made greater use of debt markets for financing. While the market previously asked “how much does AI cost?”, the next question is increasingly which company can convert that infrastructure into pricing power and customer retention.
Partnerships as a strategic response
Cooperation among large tech firms does not necessarily mean competition disappears; rather, strategic partnerships complement vertical integration. Such agreements can help turn capex into shareholder value when they secure controlled capacity, long‑term customers, model access, reliable power and distribution advantages.
Selected recent examples:
-
Alphabet–SpaceX: reports describe talks around the Suncatcher concept, an idea for orbiting AI data centers powered by solar energy — currently an envisioned project.
-
IREN–Microsoft (November 2025): IREN signed a five‑year, roughly $9.7 billion AI cloud services contract with Microsoft that provides access to Nvidia GB300 GPUs. Concurrently, IREN entered about a $5.8 billion agreement with Dell Technologies to procure GPUs and related equipment.
-
Meta–Nebius (March 2026): Nebius may supply up to $12 billion of dedicated AI capacity to Meta over five years, with deliveries potentially starting in early 2027. Meta can also commit up to an additional $15 billion of capacity subject to certain conditions.
-
Amazon–Anthropic (April 2026): Amazon agreed to invest up to $25 billion more in Anthropic, while Anthropic committed to more than $100 billion of AWS technology and cloud spending over the next ten years.
-
Nvidia–OpenAI (announced September last year): Nvidia may invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI.
-
OpenAI–Oracle (announced last year): OpenAI contracted to purchase roughly $300 billion of compute capacity from Oracle over about five years.
This flurry of deals suggests the AI competition is not slowing but reshaping industry structure, where capacity, supplier relationships and large cloud commitments become central.
When does capex become shareholder value — and what are the risks?
High capex alone is not inherently positive. For investments to become shareholder value they typically need to be tied to controlled capacity build‑out, long‑term customer commitments, model access and dependable energy and distribution. When these elements align, capex can create competitive advantages and sustainable revenue streams.
However, there are several risks:
-
Concentration: the investment cycle may concentrate around a small number of dominant tech firms, chipmakers and cloud providers, reinforcing a narrow group of market leaders.
-
Financing and structural complexity: circular financing arrangements and strategic supplier dependencies make transparent valuation more difficult.
-
Regulatory and capacity risks: slower returns, stronger regulatory pressure, or tighter energy and data‑center capacity than expected could quickly undermine current valuation premia.
A central uncertainty is the scale of genuine end‑demand: how much compute capacity will be truly and sustainably required versus how much demand the system generates internally.
Conclusion
The current wave of cooperation indicates investors will increasingly evaluate infrastructure and ecosystem position in the coming period. Whether capex translates into shareholder value depends largely on firms’ ability to control capacity and secure long‑term customer commitments.
The content of this article should not be construed as investment solicitation or advice, nor as an offer to subscribe, buy or sell securities. This text was prepared by Prestige Financial Zrt. as an intermediary for Erste Befektetési Zrt. and is intended solely to provide informational material to investors.
