A new Mastercard report, A Short History of the Future of Shopping and Payments, predicts that by 2030 more than one in ten online shoppers could regularly rely on AI agents to purchase goods on their behalf. The analysis draws on Mastercard research and the perspectives of four futurists — Magnus Lindkvist, Patrick Dixon, Katja Forbes and Theodora Lau — to examine how everyday shopping and payments might evolve by the end of the decade.
What the report foresees
According to the report, AI agents are likely to first penetrate routine, repeat purchases such as groceries, medicines and subscriptions. These agents will be able to process large volumes of information in seconds, verify company claims, analyse customer reviews and feedback, apply user-defined rules and then make purchasing decisions and execute transactions.
The report highlights technologies like Agent Pay that could enable consumers to delegate the execution of transactions to software while maintaining security, transparency and consumer control safeguards.
Young people are already using AI
Mastercard commissioned Opinium to run a survey in June and July 2026 across 13 countries. The study covered 13,000 parent–teen (13–18 years) pairs — 26,000 respondents in total — in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Spain and the United Kingdom.
The findings show that teenagers use AI to support shopping decisions at higher rates than their parents:
- 27% of teenagers would consider using a fully AI-operated shopping assistant (that recommends products, chooses between options and completes purchases according to user-set rules); among parents the share is 16%.
- 18% of teenagers use AI weekly to find the best price or discounts, compared with 10% of parents.
- 62% of young people believe AI will significantly change how their generation shops; 31% would trust an AI product recommendation over a friend’s suggestion.
- 67% of parents think AI-driven purchasing will be defining for their children’s generation, while only 5% expect it to be defining for their own generation.
- There are generational usage differences: younger parents aged 18–34 report weekly AI use for product research at 14%, versus 10% for those aged over 55.
New obligations for retailers and financial institutions
The report warns that retailers will face a new kind of buyer: an AI agent that rapidly evaluates evidence and makes purchases. Businesses will need to adapt loyalty programmes, customer interactions and digital channels to serve both human customers and machine agents.
Practically, this means making product information, claims and policies machine-readable; a sustainability claim, for example, must be backed by a certification that an AI agent can find, read and verify.
Trust will determine competitive advantage
Trust is identified as the critical competitive advantage for agent-driven commerce. Magnus Lindkvist notes that every major transformation in retail has required consumers to place trust in something new, and the shift to AI agents may be the most profound yet because consumers will delegate not only discovery and advice but also the decision itself.
Theodora Lau recommends that merchants and financial institutions establish clear regulatory and operational frameworks covering identity, consent, authorisation and accountability. The report forecasts that by 2030 at least three G20 national regulators could issue formal guidance on the registration and oversight of AI agents. It also suggests that payment intent — the authorisation consumers give an AI agent to buy on their behalf — may become commercially valuable even before a transaction is executed.
Agentic commerce is already appearing in Hungary
Although the report looks ahead to 2030, it notes that early examples of agentic commerce are already in use. Earlier this year Mastercard and partners completed Europe’s first live, end-to-end agent payment transaction. In Hungary, Mastercard carried out the country’s first authenticated AI-agent-initiated transaction together with OTP Bank. The programme has since expanded with the participation of Gránit Bank, MBH Bank and K&H Bank, demonstrating that AI-powered commerce is moving from theory toward practical deployment.
Methodology
Mastercard commissioned Opinium to explore attitudes and usage of AI assistants among parents and teenagers in shopping and payments. Data collection took place in June and July 2026. The survey covered 13,000 parent–teen pairs (13–18 years), 26,000 respondents across 13 countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Spain and the United Kingdom.
Mastercard frames the report as a call for consumers, businesses and regulators to take pragmatic steps now to prepare for the growing role of AI agents in commerce.
