Morningstar analysts say SpaceX shares could be significantly overvalued when the company begins its planned Nasdaq listing in about two weeks, CNBC reported. Media reports indicate SpaceX plans to raise roughly $75 billion in the offering, with an implied $1.75 trillion company valuation.
Morningstar's valuation versus private‑market marks
In a Monday analysis, Morningstar estimated SpaceX's value at just $780 billion using a discounted cash flow (DCF) approach. That figure is roughly 48 percent below private‑market valuations cited around $1.5 trillion.
Key risks: xAI and operating losses
Analysts singled out SpaceX's xAI artificial intelligence division as a particular risk. Morningstar said the profitability outlook for xAI is highly uncertain and long‑term competitive advantages are hard to identify, meaning the unit could materially destroy value.
According to the company's S‑1 filing, SpaceX reported a $4.28 billion net loss in the most recent quarter, and a total $4.94 billion loss for 2025. Starlink satellite internet generated $3.26 billion in quarterly revenue, accounting for 69 percent of total revenue and remaining the company's sole profitable segment. By contrast, the aerospace division reported a $619 million operating loss and the AI unit produced a $2.5 billion operating loss.
The S‑1 also acknowledged that SpaceX has operated at a loss historically and that future profitability is not guaranteed.
Possible short‑term upside after the IPO
Morningstar nevertheless expects the stock could rise in the near term following the offering. Factors that could prop up the listing include a low initial float, supportive investment bank behavior at pricing, strong demand for AI infrastructure, and the prospect of inclusion in the Nasdaq‑100 index as soon as 15 trading days after the IPO — all of which could push the post‑IPO share price higher.
Dan Coatsworth, a market analyst at AJ Bell, noted that a $1.75 trillion valuation would imply a roughly 67‑times revenue multiple (as compared in the article to similar metrics for peers), about three times the comparable multiple for Nvidia. He warned that such a valuation level poses substantial risk for further growth.
What this means for investors
Morningstar's view suggests investors might prefer to wait for a more attractive entry point, given the sizable gap between private‑market valuations and the company's financial performance. While a short‑term pop is possible, long‑term profitability uncertainty and xAI‑related risks represent meaningful downsides.
This article is not investment advice.
