Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have reasserted themselves among the leading players in artificial intelligence, countering earlier predictions that they had fallen out of the top tier and showing they can narrow the gap with frontier labs.
Why this matters
Recent moves by SpaceX and Meta are increasing pressure on the hierarchy long dominated by OpenAI and Anthropic. Both companies released models this week that pair competitive performance with price points that would have been unlikely from them a year ago.
Models and metrics
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SpaceX’s Grok 4.6 scored essentially even with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol Max on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and trailed only slightly behind Anthropic’s Fable 5 Max. Elon Musk said Grok 4.7 should arrive in three to four weeks and predicted that, after further training on a large trove of SpaceX data, it will “exceed all current models.”
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Meta is attacking the frontier from a cost angle. Its new models deliver competitive performance at substantially lower cost, including Muse Glimmer — an open-weight system compact enough to run locally on a laptop.
How they are trying to catch up
Both leaders have deployed the full weight of their organizations—spending billions on talent, infrastructure and acquisitions.
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Mark Zuckerberg restructured Meta’s AI efforts after the disappointing launch of Llama 4, invested $14.3 billion in Scale AI, and recruited Alexandr Wang, Scale AI’s CEO, into the company’s push.
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Elon Musk went further by folding xAI into SpaceX and agreeing to acquire Cursor for $60 billion, consolidating massive compute power, proprietary SpaceX data and a fast-growing AI coding platform under one roof.
The race is changing
The competition is rewarding more than raw model performance: price and cost-effectiveness are becoming decisive for many users. “You don't need to be the highest performing, most expensive model in the market to be able to be successful,” Sonali Basak, chief investment strategist at iCapital, told Axios. Basak noted this raises a key question for Musk and Zuckerberg: can their AI advances “fuel the core businesses” that financed their comeback?
Frontier labs still hold advantages
Frontier labs remain in pole position, with even more capable models reportedly in development — some deemed too sensitive for public release. “I wouldn't say they've caught up to OpenAI or Anthropic,” said John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. A Meta employee told Axios the company still feels behind the frontier labs in model performance and development.
What to watch next
Turbulence at Google could open an opportunity for SpaceX or Meta to claim a leading role among publicly traded AI champions. Google had appeared well positioned to challenge OpenAI and Anthropic, but recent departures of top AI talent — including its chief scientist — and setbacks with its flagship Gemini model have weakened that position.
Bottom line
OpenAI and Anthropic built their advantage through years of technical excellence. Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg are pressing from behind with decades of scale and resources; the next phase of the race may reward cost-efficiency and integration as much as raw capability.
