General Alexus Grynkewich, commander of NATO forces in Europe, has been developing a strategic document called the "Theory of Victory" that outlines how the alliance could achieve a rapid victory if the eastern flank were subjected to a Russian attack, Bloomberg reports. Bloomberg reviewed a non-classified version of the document.
When and where it will be presented
Grynkewich will present the concept in Poland on October 12. The document aims to clarify for allies and the public how NATO would respond to a territorial incursion and to show how member states' increased defense spending would be used.
Core elements of the strategy
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The document underscores NATO's defensive posture and urges avoidance of inadvertent provocations, while placing emphasis on collective responses to hybrid threats—aggressive actions below the threshold of open war.
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Central to the concept is effective deterrence: demonstrating readiness and capabilities so a potential adversary concludes it has no chance of victory.
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In the event of an attack, NATO would halt the intrusion under the Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative by combining ground forces with advanced systems.
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The plan relies heavily on low-cost drones, systems requiring minimal personnel, and AI-assisted target identification. After initial operations, the strategy would focus on degrading or destroying the adversary's command-and-control systems to secure a rapid, decisive outcome.
Why the plan was created
The initiative was prompted in part by disagreements among NATO members since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine over defense priorities. Debates have centered on how much to invest in traditional weapons systems, such as tanks, versus the newer technologies that have proven effective in Ukraine. The document seeks to bridge that divide by demonstrating a combined use of conventional and innovative capabilities.
Related U.S. actions
This summer the United States sent a questionnaire to NATO members asking about defense spending and the level of support for President Donald Trump’s policies. The information collected is intended to inform decisions about possible reductions in U.S. military capacity allocated to Europe's defense. Washington also asked whether allies could contribute additional forces to support Grynkewich's defense plans.
Sources and disclosures
Bloomberg was given access to the non-classified version of the document; further details are expected after the October presentation. The article preparation involved an AI assistant; the final content was edited and verified by our journalist.
Why it matters
The "Theory of Victory" matters because it attempts to reconcile investments in traditional forces with the adoption of lower-cost, technology-driven approaches. If adopted, the concept could shape NATO's future procurement, force posture on the eastern flank, and the alliance's collective response to potential aggression.
Tags: Donald Trump, drone, artificial intelligence, NATO, tank, defense spending, strategy, hybrid war, Russia–Ukraine war, United States
