In July and August the United States moved to restrict foreign-made advanced robotic systems and imposed steep tariffs on imported drones and their components, citing national-security concerns. The drone tariffs take effect in September, while additional tariffs on drone components are scheduled to begin in 2027.
These steps form part of a broader U.S. policy to limit foreign technology in industries deemed strategically important. The Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) Covered List, created in 2021, originally targeted telecommunications and surveillance equipment from firms such as Huawei, ZTE and Hikvision; it has since been expanded to include foreign-made drones and, most recently, advanced robotic devices.
China’s scale advantage in robots and drones
The new measures arrive as Chinese manufacturers have secured leading positions in both drones and humanoid robots, often competing on price levels that many U.S. and European rivals struggle to match.
According to a Counterpoint Research report, global humanoid robot shipments reached 22,000 units in the first half of 2026, with the vast majority produced by Chinese companies. The five largest humanoid robot makers by shipments—AgiBot, Unitree, Galbot, UBTECH and Leju Robotics—are all Chinese and together accounted for 86% of global shipments in H1 2026.
Analysts warn that this advantage can be self-reinforcing: lower prices encourage broader deployment, producing more real-world data that can accelerate improvements, while higher volumes can push costs down further. Some Chinese firms are also internalizing more of the technology stack and leveraging China’s manufacturing base to reduce costs. For example, Unitree is developing more components in-house, and automakers such as XPeng can transfer chip and vehicle-manufacturing experience into robotics.
Ankur Saxena, investment director at TDK Ventures, summed up the split: the United States leads in frontier AI, software and semiconductor innovation, while China leads in manufacturing scale, supply-chain depth and cost.
Where might Chinese companies expand next?
Industry voices say that even if Chinese robotics firms are shut out of the U.S. market, they still have a large domestic market and opportunities to expand abroad—especially in regions demanding affordable automation. Soumen Mandal, a principal analyst at Counterpoint Research, noted Chinese companies are already targeting price-sensitive markets facing labor shortages, including parts of Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
Mandal expects humanoid makers to follow a path similar to Chinese electric vehicle companies: scale domestically, expand overseas, and eventually establish local production. Countries with demographic decline and labor shortages could be early adopters of humanoid robots, particularly in manufacturing tasks that are repetitive.
The drone market as an early indicator
The drone sector provides an early example of how the global robotics landscape could fragment. According to Bentzion Levinson, founder and CEO of Virginia-based drone maker Heven AeroTech, the industry is increasingly splitting into two ecosystems: a U.S.-led market built around American-made, NDAA-compliant systems, and a China-led market focused on low-cost, high-volume production.
Levinson argued Western manufacturers are unlikely to outcompete Chinese firms in the low-end consumer drone market, where price is decisive. Instead, U.S. and allied companies could gain ground in long-range autonomous systems for defense and critical infrastructure, where security requirements are paramount. He also suggested the next battleground will shift to the technologies that power drones and the payloads they carry—particularly energy architecture and battery systems.
Industry responses
Agility Robotics welcomed the FCC’s July decision, saying it could address security concerns about foreign-made advanced robots before those systems become deeply embedded in the U.S. market as happened in the drone industry. The company highlighted its Digit humanoid, which is designed and assembled in the United States, while also calling for continued access to tools and technologies necessary for robotics research and development.
Toward a more regionalized robotics market
Analysts argue the alternative to Chinese supply isn’t a purely domestic U.S. chain but a diversified, allied supply base. That could open opportunities elsewhere in Asia: Japan has long experience in industrial robotics and precision manufacturing; South Korea is strong in electronics, batteries and automobiles; Taiwan plays a key role in semiconductors. Still, none can simply replace China given how embedded Chinese components are across the global robotics industry.
Regional manufacturers could position themselves between low-cost Chinese robots and higher-priced U.S. offerings. South Korea’s Hyundai (owner of Boston Dynamics) and Japan’s Toyota are among automakers investing in robotics, bringing vehicle, manufacturing and autonomy expertise into humanoid projects. Yang Fang of Beagle Technology, a California agtech startup, suggested robotics is likely to become more regional as companies design machines for the labor needs, working conditions and customers of their home markets.
Implications
The U.S. restrictions may protect parts of the domestic market, but they do not directly eliminate China’s global manufacturing scale and cost advantages. Industry analysts and executives say the likely outcome is not a neat U.S.–China split but a more fragmented global market: Chinese firms expanding on cost and scale across many regions; U.S. and allied manufacturers competing where security matters most; and firms in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea seeking to carve out space between those poles.
