A BloombergNEF report projects that U.S. data centers could consume about 18 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas per day by 2035, nearly double the organization’s estimate from nine months earlier. The new forecast adjusts for the fact that not every announced data center project will be completed.
Onsite plants versus grid-connected facilities
Onsite power generation at data centers has drawn attention recently, as companies including Meta, Microsoft, Google and Amazon have announced plans for new natural-gas-fired power plants that would bypass the grid. BloombergNEF estimates such onsite projects would use 2.9–3.4 bcf/day by 2035 — roughly the same volume all data centers consume today when accounting for gas used to generate grid electricity.
However, BloombergNEF finds that onsite plants may account for only a portion of the overall demand growth. By the middle of the next decade, rising electricity demand from grid-connected data centers is expected to drive an additional roughly 15 bcf/day of natural gas consumption in the power sector. In context, that is five times the demand growth through 2035 from all other grid-connected sectors combined.
Economic implications: prices and ratepayers
If this steep demand growth materializes it could push natural gas prices higher. Much of the current data center buildout has relied on the relatively stable natural gas prices of recent years. Analysts at Noreva warn that this stability may be misplaced: the combined effect of the data center expansion and rising LNG exports could cause prices to surge. Even if large tech companies could absorb higher costs, utility ratepayers — households and businesses — might face higher bills.
Climate impact: a substantial emissions increase
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), burning one cubic foot of natural gas releases the equivalent of about 60 grams of carbon dioxide when accounting for extraction, processing and distribution. The additional demand from data centers implied by BloombergNEF’s forecast would generate roughly 1 million metric tons more greenhouse gas pollution daily — approximately 12% of total current U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
Why this matters
The projections highlight that the rapid expansion of AI and data-intensive services affects more than the IT sector: it has consequences for energy systems, fossil fuel demand, consumer energy bills and the climate. Policymakers, utilities and companies will need to consider measures such as diversifying energy sources, boosting efficiency and pursuing emissions-reduction strategies.
Summary
BloombergNEF’s forecast indicates U.S. data centers’ natural gas use could reach about 18 bcf/day by 2035, with 2.9–3.4 bcf/day from onsite plants and about 15 bcf/day linked to grid-connected demand. That scale of growth could raise prices, increase costs for utility customers, and add a meaningful amount of greenhouse gas emissions.
