In its contribution to Portfolio’s “Portfólió-ajánlók” series, Apelso Capital Alapkezelő outlines how it would construct a medium-term, medium-risk model portfolio. The firm says the market is currently driven mainly by rising energy prices and increasing bond yields.
Energy prices and geopolitics
Oil and natural gas prices are climbing amid lack of meaningful progress in resolving the Middle East conflict. Apelso notes that actions by Donald Trump suggest there is little chance of an agreement with Iran before the upcoming midterm elections, making a near-term easing of energy market turbulence unlikely. Another potential risk is a possible U.S. restriction on diesel exports; combined with higher prices and low gas storage levels, such a move could have significant inflationary consequences.
Although energy supply is more diversified today than during the 2022 energy crisis, Apelso warns that further price increases, fiscal loosening and political risks could trigger additional bond selling in the months ahead.
Bond markets and central banks
Bond yields have risen. While several drivers have been at work in recent months, Apelso says the strongest influences now are the co-movement with oil prices and inflation fears. They also point out that none of the major central banks — either verbally or through direct intervention — has been able to reassure bond investors, suggesting the problems may be structural.
In Hungary, yields rose in line with international moves; Apelso highlights that domestic yields increased by a similar magnitude as those in developed markets, whereas some regional peers experienced larger yield jumps.
Equities and the effect of AI
Apelso describes a mixed picture for U.S. equities: most large indices are near record levels, yet only 26% of S&P 500 constituents are trading above their 50-day moving average — compared with roughly 70% in mid-August.
Developments in artificial intelligence are affecting sentiment. Apelso observes that the market mood flipped quickly from fears that “AI could threaten humanity” to optimism following Meta’s new agent, but the rapid progress in AI also poses growing threats to many industries, which has prompted renewed selling in some areas. In short, the market often seems conflicted about whether to fear or embrace AI.
Portfolio and asset allocation
Apelso states that market fundamentals have not materially changed over the past month, so they did not find it justified to alter their asset allocation. Their positioning is as follows:
- Equity exposure: overall neutral weight; overweight in regional equities due to attractive valuations.
- Domestic bonds: remain overweight.
- Recent yield increases have not yet provided a new attractive entry point for them.
Current currency exposures in Apelso Capital’s model portfolio:
- HUF: 67.5%
- EUR: 15%
- USD: 12.5%
- Other currencies: 5%
The asset allocation is provided for informational purposes. Apelso also notes that confidence in the new government persists for now, and that maintaining that confidence will require concrete actions.
Events and legal note
The piece references the Professional Investment Day 2026 event and reiterates that the commentary does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation.
The article summarizes Apelso’s reading of current market dynamics: rising energy prices, higher bond yields and mixed AI-driven sentiment, while the firm keeps mainly neutral equity exposure, a regional equity overweight and continued overweight in domestic bonds.
