Experts from MBH Befektetési Bank told a Portfolio Investment Club event that investors today face multiple simultaneous forces: the rise of artificial intelligence, geopolitical risks, a turn in the bond market, the strengthening of the forint and strong performance on the Hungarian stock market. According to the bank’s specialists, following headline stories alone is not enough — investments should be backed by measurable return prospects, quantifiable risks and deliberate portfolio construction.
Artificial intelligence remains central but not exclusive
In his opening remarks, Brezina Szabolcs, CEO of MBH Befektetési Bank, said AI’s expansion is a dominant influence on investor thinking. He framed the debate around two main questions: how AI will affect workers and how it will influence investment decisions. He noted the coexistence of fatalistic and optimistic views — the former warning of job and market losses within years, the latter seeing AI as an evolutionary step that could materially raise per-capita output. Brezina emphasized that nobody can say with certainty how the process will unfold.
He pointed to a concrete datapoint: in 2026 Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft and Google plan roughly $730 billion in investments collectively, but it is unclear how much of that is AI-related and who will ultimately capture the gains (firms that substitute labour, developers, or chipmakers). For that reason he recommended also looking at more traditional, predictable sectors.
Bonds and yields: opportunities exist, timing is difficult
Vince Péter, head of the Advisory Desk at MBH Befektetési Bank, argued there is room for investors on the bond market today. Hungarian bonds have performed well this year, partly due to expectations around euro adoption. He said current yields on longer-duration bonds can offer meaningful real returns, but entering at the right point is hard and rising yields can cause short-term pain.
MBH Group specialists highlighted that developed-market yields have reached levels not seen in nearly two decades. Herczog Péter noted the move largely reflects higher demanded real returns; US inflation-linked government bonds (TIPS) already offer roughly 3 percent real yield in his assessment. Árokszállási Zoltán cautioned that higher public debt ratios today mean interest burdens are larger, so coming weeks or months may test whether markets force fiscal consolidation or a market ‘accident’ occurs.
Equity markets: expect swings and watch concentration risk
Speakers stressed that equity markets typically fall first in crises and then can recover, so investors must be prepared for volatility and often hold through turbulence. Debreczeni Csaba, lead equity analyst at MBH Befektetési Bank, said beneath headline indices the picture is less favourable: much of the S&P 500’s profits are concentrated in a few technology companies tied to AI, while many firms trade below their 52-week highs.
He added that many stocks have not become materially cheaper despite 10–20 percent falls because valuation multiples did not compress meaningfully. Europe and the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region still offer equity stories, but prior discounts have diminished — the BUX price/earnings ratio, for example, is closer to its historical average. The CEE region remains attractive, though past cheapness cannot be relied on in the same way.
'Old economy' and megatrends: diversification avenues
Analysts urged attention to traditional industries that have been sidelined by the AI narrative. Debreczeni cited healthcare service providers, consumer and household goods manufacturers, and conventional industrial companies as examples. Vince recommended thinking in megatrends: demographics and healthcare, India’s long-term growth story, sustainability and green energy, as well as bloc formation and deglobalization.
Vince also noted that gold can still play a role in portfolios as a diversification element, not a vehicle for quick riches.
Geopolitics and commodities
Debreczeni observed that geopolitical conflicts alone rarely impose prolonged pressure on equity markets; the uncertain lead-up to conflicts causes more volatility. He noted that through late March 2026 oil and commodity prices had risen and, following the outbreak of the Iran-related conflict, riskier assets also bounced back — S&P growth stocks, high-beta names and the Nasdaq all strengthened. Oil remains a risk, though the global economy’s resilience means prices around $100–$110 per barrel have less impact than in the past; oil companies may benefit from elevated refining margins driven by lost refining capacity.
Domestic outlook: forint, MNB inflation target and Hungarian assets
In a panel discussion, Árokszállási Zoltán (head of MBH Bank’s analysis centre), Demjén Ottó (MBH Befektetési Bank managing director for trading and sales) and Herczog Péter (head of investments at MBH Alapkezelő) reviewed dilemmas for domestic investors. They considered the Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s (MNB) lowered inflation target of 2.5 percent effective from 2028: while this could justify tighter central-bank policy in the short term, if the target is credible its effects could materialize relatively quickly. The 2.5 percent target also provides a useful benchmark for real-yield calculations and could strengthen the convergence story.
Panelists said many savers moved into foreign-currency investments in recent years more for perceived safety than for yield. Demjén noted that distrust toward the forint was strong, but convergence and credibility-building can change that gradually. Herczog suggested a more optimistic scenario: if markets believe Hungary is on the verge of euro adoption, the forint could be viewed as a higher-yield euro exposure. Árokszállási cautioned that a different regime has begun for the forint: he does not expect significant nominal strengthening in the coming months, nor major weakening.
They did not recommend underweighting Hungarian assets across the board. Short-term Hungarian government paper may appeal to cautious investors because of still relatively high yields, while yield convergence could open space for riskier assets over time. However, they warned investors should avoid complex, risky trades without proper analysis or advice.
On the domestic equity market, panelists noted strong concentration: household equity investments have risen, partly due to price moves, while more than half of Budapest Stock Exchange turnover is linked to a single name, OTP, and together with Richter and MOL the three blue chips account for most trading. Herczog said the market could be attractive longer term if yield convergence prompts investors to shift from bonds toward riskier assets, but volatility in developed bond markets and corrections in OTP counsel caution in the short run.
Conclusion: disciplined construction and regular review
Across presentations and panels, experts agreed that long-term investment success depends less on market timing and more on deliberate portfolio construction and regular review. While AI remains a dominant narrative, bonds, classical industries and domestic opportunities deserve attention when weighing risks and return prospects.
Related event
Portfolio’s first deep tech conference (Deep Tech 2026: Research, industry, capital — where will the next decade’s big business opportunities be born?) is scheduled for November 18; organisers have published registration details and further information.
