The Consumer Technology Association (CTA), the largest trade group representing the US consumer technology industry, published an analysis estimating the costs and impacts of shifting production of ten widely sold consumer electronics categories entirely to the United States.
What was analyzed and the cost of full reshoring
The ten categories reviewed by the CTA are smartphones, laptops, televisions, game consoles, smartwatches, computer monitors, smart speakers, robot vacuums, true wireless earbuds, and headphones. According to the CTA’s calculations, a complete transfer of production to the United States by 2031 would entail:
- Investment required: $185–230 billion.
- New full‑time jobs: 555,000–668,000.
- Annual additional electricity demand: 19.1–19.5 billion kilowatt‑hours.
The CTA notes that the workforce demand would be more than double the current US employment in computer and electronic product manufacturing, and the increased electricity demand is a sensitive issue as AI data centers are also driving rapid growth in power consumption.
How much would prices rise?
Product‑level estimates from the CTA indicate the largest production‑cost increase for smartphones: full US manufacturing, taking current tariffs into account, would raise production costs by 152 percent. Other estimates include:
- Laptops: +93% in production costs.
- Smartwatches: +97%.
- Televisions: +41%.
The CTA assumes companies would pass through 25–50 percent of the extra costs to consumers. Under that assumption, the weighted average consumer price increase for the ten categories would be 27–55 percent. The CTA emphasizes this would not be a one‑off price shock: a household replacing a phone, laptop, and television on a typical replacement cycle would face higher prices on all three purchases.
If firms only partially pass through costs to customers, margins would shrink, which over time could undermine investor confidence and slow further investment, the CTA warns.
A phased option: bringing assembly home only
The CTA recommends a more gradual approach. If the United States first relocated only final assembly rather than the full parts and components supply chain, the estimates fall considerably:
- Investment required: $16–19 billion.
- New full‑time jobs: 61,000–73,000.
- Annual additional electricity demand: 1.4–1.8 billion kilowatt‑hours.
Even in that scenario cost increases remain material: smartphone production costs would still rise by 67 percent and laptop costs by 50 percent.
The association also urges that tariffs should not apply to parts sourced from allied countries, because such tariffs would increase the cost of US assembly.
Political context and industry reactions
President Donald Trump launched the Genesis Mission by executive order in December 2025. The program aims to leverage US strengths in artificial intelligence to bolster American positions in advanced robotics, biotechnology, semiconductors, and nuclear technologies. The initiative’s goals extend beyond reshoring parts of manufacturing to building more self‑sufficient US technology supply chains with minimal dependence on foreign suppliers, including allies.
CTA leaders warn that a rapid, full reshoring faces significant physical and labor market constraints. Gary Shapiro, CEO of the CTA, said at a press briefing that it is not realistic for the US share of semiconductor manufacturing to rise above 50 percent within roughly two years, even with unlimited immediate funding.
Apple has been under particular political pressure. Wall Street analysts have previously estimated that a fully US‑made iPhone could cost $1,500–3,500. Apple did not publicly link its higher‑priced device offerings to tariff policy, although the company later introduced a foldable iPhone Duo with a $2,000 starting price and offers a similarly priced iPhone 17 Pro Max 2 TB model — moves commentators have suggested might test consumer willingness to pay for premium SKUs.
Who would be most affected?
The CTA says large technology firms would likely be better positioned to adapt to reshoring costs, while the small businesses that make up about 80 percent of the CTA’s membership would be far more vulnerable. The association argues that a one‑size‑fits‑all reshoring policy risks imposing the largest burdens on consumers for those products where full US manufacturing economics are weakest — notably smartphones and laptops.
The CTA’s role
The Consumer Technology Association is North America’s largest technology industry trade association; its membership includes startups and global technology firms. The CTA says its members support more than 17 million US jobs. The association organizes the CES technology trade show and is an industry advocacy organization rather than an independent research institute, so its analyses reflect industry cost and competitiveness priorities, a perspective the CTA itself acknowledges.
