KPMG's ninth CEO Outlook surveyed 1,325 chief executives between 15 August and 15 September 2023. The study shows that while global leaders face multiple simultaneous challenges, most remain broadly optimistic about three‑year global economic prospects. At the same time, the hierarchy of risks has shifted notably compared with prior years.
Key findings
- 73 percent of respondents are optimistic about the global economy over the next three years (up slightly from 71 percent last year).
- Geopolitical and broader political uncertainty are now viewed as the top growth risk, although this factor was not among the five biggest risks in 2022.
- Confidence in respondents' own companies' growth fell to 77 percent, a three‑year low (it stood at 85 percent in early 2020).
Macroeconomic risks and corporate concerns
More than three quarters of CEOs (77 percent) believe rising interest rates and tighter monetary policy increase the risk of a global recession or could prolong one. The same proportion (77 percent) expects cost‑of‑living pressures to have a likely negative impact on their organisations' prosperity.
Rózsai Rezső, CEO of KPMG, observes that the polycrisis — persistent, interacting changes in geopolitics, trade and international relations — forces leaders to reassess strategic priorities and demands a new level of resilience.
Strategic focuses: technology, ESG, talent
Respondents placed technology/digitalisation/AI, the ESG framework and workforce/talent among their top strategic priorities. Personal integrity and trust building have also grown in importance for executives.
Generative AI and investments
- Around seven in ten CEOs place generative artificial intelligence at the top of their mid‑term investment priorities.
- 52 percent expect those investments to deliver returns within three to five years.
- The leading deterrent to AI investment is ethical concerns (57 percent). Implementation costs were cited by 55 percent as the next most common concern, and half of respondents pointed to regulatory and technical capability gaps.
- 87 percent worry that AI proliferation will bring more sophisticated cyberattack techniques.
Workplace presence and talent development
The rapid technological shifts driven in part by AI have increased the need for quicker responses and more effective collaboration. Accordingly, 64 percent of CEOs predict a full return to office working within three years. An overwhelming share (87 percent) say they will incentivise office attendance, for example through financial rewards or promotion.
Rózsai Rezső emphasised that long‑term success will depend on agile but sustained collaboration and on continuous training, change management, talent development and attention to employee experience.
ESG as a business foundation
69 percent of CEOs say they have embedded ESG into their business as a mechanism for value creation. Yet 68 percent consider their current ESG progress insufficiently robust, and many would not necessarily stand up to an external review.
64 percent of respondents believe that declining trust in institutions increases stakeholder and societal expectations that businesses address social change.
Conclusions
KPMG CEO Outlook 2023 finds that, amid a polycrisis, most leaders of large global companies remain cautiously optimistic in the medium term, but geopolitical and political uncertainty plus macroeconomic pressures are reshaping strategic priorities. Investment in generative AI, strengthening ESG capabilities, continuous workforce development and rethinking workplace practices are central to corporate planning, accompanied by a heightened focus on integrity and trust building.
According to Rózsai Rezső, the polycrisis also offers an opportunity for leaders to act purposefully and resiliently to steer the economy and society toward better outcomes.
