The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Thursday that global trade in goods is expected to grow by 3.9% this year. The WTO highlighted that disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East have been more than offset by a strong wave of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
AI-related goods account for disproportionate share of growth
According to the WTO, AI-related goods and materials represented 47% of trade growth in the first half of 2026, despite comprising only 15% of total goods trade. This concentrated expansion in AI-related shipments provided a significant boost to cross-border commerce even as other sectors weakened.
Energy and fertilizer shipments decline
The WTO noted declines in shipments of oil, natural gas and fertilizer—drops associated with the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on supply chains. Those declines would have dampened trade growth if not for the offset provided by AI-related trade.
Two opposing forces shaping global trade
The WTO’s chief economist said global trade has been shaped by two opposing forces: a Middle East conflict affecting services as much as goods, and an exceptionally strong wave of investment in AI infrastructure. "So far, the second force has outweighed the first," the WTO summarized.
Why this matters
The WTO report underlines that technology investments—particularly in AI-related equipment and inputs—can counter regional risks and generate substantial short‑term trade growth. At the same time, the data show that geopolitical tensions continue to leave supply chains vulnerable and add uncertainty to future trade dynamics.
(Compiled by Brendan Ruberry — source: WTO report)
